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编号 6 (120) (2023)
Articles
Freezing of russia's arctic chairmanship
摘要
The author overviews the main results of Russia's chairmanship of the Arctic Council (AC, Council) in 2021-2023, analyses its relationship with domestic and international governance. Four main periods of the Russian chairmanship are defined. It is noted that due to the Ukrainian conflict, the Russian chairmanship was boycotted by Western countries. In the conditions of geopolitical instability, the Russian Federation managed to organise most of the planned events. During this period Russia concentrated on the infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route, the socio-economic development of the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation. However, due to the position of the Western countries, it was not possible for Russia to fully achieve and implement the scheduled activities. It negatively affected the work of the Organising Committee, representative ministries, departments, Arctic regions and scientific organisations. The course of the chairmanship was disorganized. May 2023 Russia remotely handed over the chairmanship of the Arctic Council to Norway, hoping to restore the former status. The Russian Federation believes that the problems of the Arctic region can be solved only through balanced and mutually beneficial international cooperation.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(6 (120)):5-15
5-15
Habit, Arguing and Emotions in Russia-EU Relations pre-2022: Concepts of Social Actions
摘要
The article draws on International Relations theorizing of different logics of social action to provide yet another conceptual interpretation of the dynamics of EU-Russia relations before the deepest crisis started in 2022. The research concentrates on the logics of habit, arguing and affective action. Logics precluding changes in EU-Russia relations are illustrated by foreign policy moves and perceptions of both sides pre-2022 crisis. According to the logic of arguing, Russia refuted the EU’s claim to have the better argument, while the EU did not accept Russia’s self-attributed status of a country belonging to the Western lifeworld with shared political culture and did not take Russian arguments as genuine. Consequently, in the logic of affective action, Russian authorities got frustrated and angry because of the EU’s denial of an important Russian affectual need for belonging. The habits of mutual distrust and the incompatibility of mutual perceptions lead to the routinization of the conflict that is very difficult if not impossible to overcome.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(6 (120)):16-25
16-25
Belarus as an object of Poland's foreign policy
摘要
The article analyzes the evolution of foreign policy approaches of Poland towards Belarus and Belarusian nationalism. The main purpose of the article is to identify the evolution of approaches to Belarus in Polish political thought and practices of the Polish state. The ambiguous attitude of Polish political figures to Belarusian nationalism and the very idea of Belarusian statehood is demonstrated. This attitude has changed significantly over time from active rejection of Belarusian nationalism to readiness to use and support it in the foreign policy interests of Poland. The article shows that Poland’s contemporary approaches towards Belarus are based on the Giedroyc-Mieroszewski doctrine and involve the establishment of “soft” ideological, political, cultural and economic dominance of Poland in the former lands of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth without formally changing existing borders. It is noted that the success of these methods of Polish foreign policy in relation to Belarus is significantly lower than in relation to Ukraine. This is primarily due to the peculiarities of the political development of Belarus in the post-Soviet period, as well as the limited ability of Poland to influence the target audience within Belarusian society. The author draws attention to the fact that Polish policy towards Belarus should be the object of close attention of Russia, since the strengthening of Polish influence in the countries of the common neighborhood may pose a threat to Russian national interests.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(6 (120)):26-37
26-37
Priorities of Poland’s policy towards Ukraine
摘要
The article explores the main factors that determine Polish policy towards Ukraine in the long term and also during special military operation. Based on the analysis of Polish sources, the research points out that the Ukrainian direction has never been a priority for Poland, because its main aim is integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. Ukraine is important primarily from the point of view of ensuring the security of the Polish state because its independence and territorial integrity are perceived as a barrier to Russia's “imperial ambitions”. The more noticeable impact on Ukraine Moscow exerts, the more resistance it meets from Warsaw. After February 2022 Polish diplomatic efforts were aimed at uniting Western countries to support Ukraine, providing it with military-technical, financial and humanitarian assistance. At the same time Warsaw strives to stay within the framework of the common course of the EU and NATO towards Ukraine and does not try to play an independent role, as it understands the limitations of its resources. Poland intends to use the events in Ukraine to increase its own geopolitical role but only within the Euro-Atlantic coalition.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(6 (120)):38-48
38-48
The norway's policy in the context of the Russia's special military operation in Ukraine
摘要
The article examines Norway's policy in terms of the special military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine (SMO). The author analyses the official position of the Kingdom of Norway on this issue, documents regulating its actions, materials in the media and public polls. Norway is not a member of the EU, therefore it joins sanctions against Russia by decision of its own authorities. Almost all of them coincide, but on some issues (for example, fishing) Norway takes an independent position. The most significant issues for Norwegians are humanitarian and military assistance to Ukraine, as well as anti-Russian sanctions and their consequences. This is reflected in the actions of the Storting, the media, as well as the policy documents of leading political parties. The SMO evokes a negative reaction of all leading political actors in Norway, but at the same time there are differences in the possible ways out of the crisis. Also, not all Norwegian politicians consider it necessary to provide assistance to Ukraine in current volumes. This topic arises in the context of military supplies due to the risk of undermining own defense capability, as well as the threat that it may be recognised as a military participant in the conflict. Measures that influence the domestic life of the Kingdom are also discussed in detail. This includes the reception of refugees and their social security in Norway, as well as sanctions that harm the work of businesses that had connections with Russia.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(6 (120)):49-58
49-58
The Balkan vector of Italy's current foreign policy
摘要
The article analyses Italy's theoretical and practical approach to the Adriatic-Ionian region, viewed as part of the concept of the "enlarged Mediterranean" (Mediterraneo Allargato), a geopolitical space that extends far beyond the Mediterranean basin. The aim of the research is to determine the place of the Balkans in Italy's modern foreign policy strategy, analysing available policy documents as well as the practical actions of the current government under the leadership of Giorgia Meloni. Italian involvement in the Balkans in the 1990s gave way to a passive EU policy in the 2000s. However, at the beginning of this decade, in the absence of a visible EU interest in the region, Italy sought to restore a bilateral format of its relations with the Western Balkans, as shown by a new reflection on Rome's soft power potential to promote the so-called System Italy (Sistema Paese) undertaken by Italian research centres. Against the backdrop of Russia-Ukraine crisis, the EU interest in the Mediterranean has also flared up, which resulted in the adoption of the New Agenda for the Mediterranean as well as the EU Strategic Compass. Italy seeks to become a new protagonist in the Balkans, by acting together with EU partners (e.g. within the Andriatic-Ionian initiative) and by taking independent political and economic initiatives (e.g. by intensifying bilateral meetings and organising business forums). The recent exacerbation of the Balkan agenda, coupled with the centre-right government's desire for a general intensification of foreign policy and the search for additional markets and business partners among its closest neighbours, offer new opportunities for Italian diplomacy.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(6 (120)):59-70
59-70
Depopulation of the Balkans: how the EU periphery is hollowing out
摘要
The research focuses on the phenomenon of rapid depopulation of the Balkans. Despite the fact that this process has been going on continuously for three decades, and has been accelerating in recent years, it is not recognised by the local political elites and the European Union as an important threat. Declaring this process as an important threat would open up the question of the causes that led to it. The study reveals that one of the underlying causes of depopulation is the policy of the key EU members, primarily Germany. The affluent members of the European Union solve their own labor shortage problems by excessive emigration of population from the Balkans, which accelerates depopulation of the entire region. The author believes that the problems which arise because of this process can lead to a permanent lag in the development of the Balkans compared to the EU. Depopulation can result in the long-term weakening of state institutions and violating the collective rights of the Balkan peoples, and turning the entire region into a “migrant waiting room” for the European Union.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(6 (120)):71-80
71-80
Too Little, Too Late: the Catalan Debacle in Light of the Slovenian Attainment of Independence
摘要
The failed Catalan sovereignty process, launched in 2012 and then crushed by the intervention of the Spanish central government in 2017, relied to a certain extent on a discursive framework based on the evocation of previous secessionist experiences in Europe. Among these, the case of Slovenia (successfully completed in 1992) stood out. A close examination of these cases outlines the limitations of these analogies, notably through their differences in terms of political and social articulation and, in particular, the diverging success of external engagement. Beyond political and social articulation and the degree of economic development (heterogeneous aspects in many successful statehood processes), the comparison of these cases demonstrates that a sound internationalization strategy is essential for statehood attainment. The success of such a strategy does not solely depend on the secessionist actors’ ability to reach out to the relevant international players, but also on the latter’s readiness to provide necessary support. While the Slovenes managed to promptly engage with the rapid geopolitical changes in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War, the Catalan bid for secession found receptiveness only among marginal actors within major powers, all together unwilling to push for border changes of a state located in a sensitive area of the Euro-Atlantic security complex.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(6 (120)):81-95
81-95
Soft power in Turkey's foreign policy in Europe
摘要
Since the mid-2000s, under the rule of the Justice and Development Party, Turkey has included the concept of soft power in its foreign policy agenda. Based on the position of Turkish officials, the practical implementation of soft power is based on public diplomacy, with its “infrastructure” being created at the same time by establishing new or transforming existing state structures in partnership with non-governmental organisations. Ankara has developed the main directions for public diplomacy to be based on interaction with its Turkish people living abroad and closely related Turkic peoples, the preservation and revival of the cultural, historical and material heritage of the Ottoman Empire, and the support of the Muslim community in different parts of the world. In addition, in recent years, relatively new directions have emerged, such as struggling against FETÖ and extension of coverage of the Turkish Radio and Television Corporation. One of the regions where the Turkish public diplomacy was implemented was Europe. The latter was divided into three sub-regions: the Balkans, Eastern Europe, and Western Europe. The Balkan countries were traditionally considered important regions for Ankara with the core goal to break old historical and cultural prejudices about its image and to form a positive one in the eyes of the public. With regard to Eastern Europe, Turkey, skillfully using the Ottoman heritage and/or the Turkic factor, exerts influence in Hungary, Moldova, and Ukraine. And the activity in Western Europe is more based on interacting with the Turkish diaspora. Therefore, the aim of the study is to reveal the main directions of Turkey's public diplomacy in the context of the implementation of the policy of soft power in Europe.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(6 (120)):96-109
96-109
European Union transregional cooperation with Latin America: perspectives, opportunities, constraints
摘要
The article focuses on modern development of the transregional cooperation between the European Union and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The study is based on official documents, on the European think tanks’ studies, as well as the conceptual vision of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). The research provides the main directions of short-term and medium-term transregional interaction between the EU and LAC. The authors consider the energy transition as one of the promising areas of transatlantic cooperation for the near future which can stimulate economic growth and production transformations in the LAC region. The article addresses the issue of building the strategic autonomy of the European Union and Latin America and the Caribbean. The authors describe three scenarios of LAC’s development in terms of transregional cooperation with the EU. It is concluded that the European Union in the context of a changing world order is trying to make Latin America and the Caribbean economically and technologically dependent through the implementation of investment programs as part of the green agenda on the way to an accelerated global energy transition.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(6 (120)):110-125
110-125
Factors of foreign trade resilience on the example of the North Europe countries. Ability to recover
摘要
The article analyses the factors of foreign trade resilience of countries, as well as makes their quantitative assessment on the example of the North Europe countries. These factors are divided into two large groups: reflecting the country's resilience and characterising its ability to recover. The factors described in this article are divided into congenital and acquired. This article is devoted to the analysis of only those factors that characterise the ability to recover. Mutual trade dependence and flexibility of the structure of the economy of the exporter's home region are identified as innate. And as acquired - diversification of trade relations, redundancy in the trading network, its modularity. Indicators to help characterise these factors are calculated for the North Europe countries. As a result, a picture of foreign trade resilience was obtained in terms of the ability of these countries to recover after shocks. The import and export positions of Finland, Sweden and Denmark in this regard turned out to be quite strong. This situation has become possible due to their wide specialisation, high diversification of trade networks, as well as the high redundancy of the EU-27 trade network. The situation in Norway and Iceland appeared to be less stable due to the fact that they have a pronounced foreign trade specialisation. These factors should theoretically contribute to a relatively high rate of recovery of foreign trade of the country in question after shocks. This was confirmed by the correlation coefficient calculated for them and the elasticity of a foreign trade.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(6 (120)):126-141
126-141
Analysis of the regional integration theory on the example of the EAEU
摘要
The article is dedicated to the analysis of liberal intergovernmentalism by Andrew Moravcsik. It is applied to study integration communities all around the world and is relevant for examining the EAEU. A.Moravcsik distinguishes three stages of the integration process: formation of national preferences (priorities), intergovernmental bargaining and realisation of its commitments at the institutional level. At the third stage institutions are endowed with supranational authority, which becomes possible through pooling or delegation of sovereignties. Applying this model, the author describes the reasons for making the Eurasian choice. They include the common need to develop transnational cooperation, enlarge the market for local producers and protect it from third parties, present the Union as an independent actor of international relations. The author gives examples of cases of the negotiation process around signing the Treaty on the EAEU and demonstrates issue-linkages based on asymmetrical interdependence within the Union. The study analyses the institutional implementation of interstate agreements and activities of the Eurasian Economic Commission, which is the supranational body of the EAEU. The Commission regulates different aspects of integration processes in the common markets for goods, services, capital and labor. The article proves that liberal intergovernmentalism is applicable to the case of Eurasian integration.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(6 (120)):142-153
142-153
Trade unions in Germany: challenges and solutions
摘要
German trade unions traditionally play critical role in securing fair work conditions and wages. However, in the XXI century they are facing significant challenges, caused by effects of globalization, structural changes in the labor market and others. The most prominent problem is gradually declining membership and therefore shrinking resource capacity. Necessity to attract new members encourages them to undertake many different actions: from increasing protest activity to altering their work models. Author considers the cases of German trade unions and how they react to the acute issues and their connection to the protests. Author draws a conclusion that structural transformations of the labor market have been more impactful than changes in their public perception. Worker unions have remained a significant and influential force in political and social fields. Nevertheless, format of their work requires significant modifications to strengthen them as organizations that truly represent workers interests.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(6 (120)):154-166
154-166
Western churches and politics: frontiers of ideologic divergence
摘要
The article deals with conflict lines in the interaction of religious institutions and political actors in Europe. Church policy in the West is seen as a practical implementation of the neo-secular approach, which implies a reduction in the role of religious institutions and church elites while remaining religiosity and quasi-religiousness. It is shown that the contradictions of state-confessional relations in Western countries pose both a threat to the value autonomy of religious organizations and an increasing trend towards the instrumentalization of religion in foreign policy. It is shown that attempts of value pressure on traditional church institutions contribute to the formation of a hostile environment that contributes to the strengthening of intra-church contradictions. As a result, religious organizations find themselves in a situation of multiplying ideological divisions and artificially pushed internal competition. The risks of reducing the institutional stability of traditional churches based on the unity of the doctrine and striving for internal unity are increasing. In this regard, the article offers an analysis of possible internal and external reactions of church institutions to the increasing pressure. As possible scenarios, the strengthening of the processes of ideological and regional autonomy and the increase in increasingly open conflicts with secular authorities in a number of countries on topical issues of the political agenda are considered. Under any of the scenarios, it is predicted that the fault line between European countries will strengthen on issues with a strong religious connotation, which may lead to an increase in social tension and deepening of divisions among the electorate in the Western states.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(6 (120)):167-179
167-179
Islam in Yamal: features of integration in the Arctic zone
摘要
On the basis of the analysis of sources, works of researchers, interviews, field studies, participant observation, features of the Islamic religion in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug are traced. During the Middle Ages the territory of Yamal was included in trade with the countries of the East through the “fur route”, as evidenced by a significant number of archaeological finds of oriental objects, and later it was formally part of such Muslim states as the Tyumen and Siberian Khanates, but the presence of Muslims in Yamal was minimal. However, since the middle of the 20th century the territory of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug began to attract migrants who created communities in cities and in shift camps. The majority of believers, despite the difference in places of exodus, adhere to Islam traditional for Russia (Hanafi and Shafi'i madhhabs), building relationships with authorities, representatives of other faiths and worldviews. They believe that it is only through dialogue that relations can be harmonized, while respecting the traditions and norms that have developed in the district. The specificity of the confession of Islam in the conditions of the Arctic is also obvious. The radicals tried to instill into the minds of fellow believers that extremist ideology and terrorist acts should become a tool in building a caliphate. For such propaganda and crimes, other Islamists are serving sentences (including life imprisonment), having different conditions for observing rituals. Security in the district, which is of strategic importance in political and economic terms, should take into account both the peculiarities of the organization of the local society and its experience in countering extremism. The article explores how Islam in Yamal passed a path in a short time that took centuries for other regions of the world.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(6 (120)):180-192
180-192
Finnish-Estonian defence cooperation. Lessons of 1939-1940 for the USSR and their modern interpretation
摘要
The article focuses on the issues of bilateral relations between Estonia and Finland in the 1920s and 1930s in the context of modern foreign policy and military cooperation between two countries. The authors consider these relations in terms of modern threats to Russia's security in the northwest and Finland's entry into NATO. Close attention is given to the current military-political situation in the region. A set of methods of comparative studies in political and historical dimensions was implemented. The purpose of the study is to show the continuity of models of military-political cooperation in the Baltic region. The authors came to the conclusion that in the third decade of the 21st century the renewal of the previous model of cooperation between Estonia and Finland and its qualitative development in the context of the NATO strategy in the Baltic theatre are possible. Currently the only obstacle to deepening Finnish-Estonian cooperation in the military-political sphere is Russia's active position. The actualisation of discussions about historical experience of interactions with Russia will inevitably lead to drawing the lessons from 1939-1948 for Tallinn and Helsinki. This can provide the pragmatisation of interactions between Russia, Finland, and Estonia in the long term.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(6 (120)):193-203
193-203
Europe in the crisis world: pressing issues, unobvious solutions
摘要
The article analyses the main trends in the development of modern Europe in the context of the world crisis and the profound transformation of international relations based on the collective monograph “Europe in a Crisis World” edited by Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Al.A. Gromyko. A wide range of problems is considered, including Europe's place in the emerging new balance of power in the world and the strengthening of decentralisation and regional integration processes, the strengths and weaknesses of the European strategy to counter the coronavirus pandemic, the new configuration that has emerged in Europe due to Britain's withdrawal from the EU and the development of integration processes in the post-Soviet space. A particular emphasis is given to the complexity and contradictory processes in Europe's economic and social spheres, calling into question the likelihood of deepening integration within the EU. The problems of European security and the prospects of relations between Russia and the West, including European associations and states, are considered separately.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(6 (120)):204-216
204-216
China's investment in EU member-states’ seaports
摘要
The article focuses on the Chinese port investment in the EU countries and analyses the motivation and current situation behind it from the Chinese perspective as well as explains the European perception of investment and its future prospect. The study is based on the Chinese and European official documents and Chinese scholars' articles. In recent years, the number of Chinese port investment projects in European countries has been increasing, and the role of ports as hubs in China-EU economic and trade cooperation has become more prominent. However, the negative perception of Chinese port investment in the EU also gradually increases. The EU is concerned that Chinese port investments will challenge the market dominance of European companies in the port shipping sector and cause political division within the EU, even with far-reaching geopolitical implications and security problems. Chinese academics generally believe that China's investment in EU ports is purely a matter of its own economic and trade interests rather than security considerations, and advocate that China and EU should actively promote port cooperation, follow the path of spatial integration and integration of interests, and build a multi-party community of interests for China-EU port cooperation, and require Europe to abandon the direct influence of external factors and commit to fostering a positive interaction between China and EU. It is necessary for Europe to work towards an effective cooperation between China and the EU on economic development issues and political security issues instead of creating a malicious confrontation.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(6 (120)):217-225
217-225