Predicting the coronary atherosclerosis severity in cardiac patients

Background. Coronary atherosclerosis is an ongoing pathological process, varying from asymptomatic forms to angina pectoris, myocardial infarction and even sudden cardiac death. Early identification of persons with an increased risk of the severe atherosclerosis will promote adequate diagnostic and therapeutic measures to prevent cardiovascular complications.

Aim. To make a prognostic model determining the probability of a severe coronary atherosclerosis in cardiac patients.

Material and methods. The actual study included 116 patients of cardiology departments with various degree of coronary atherosclerosis measured by coronary angiography: group I ≥70% coronary stenosis (≥50% in case of left main coronary artery), group II – those with less severe atherosclerotic process. All patients underwent electrocardiography (ECG) at rest and Holter monitoring. Pathological Q-waves, qualitative and quantitative characteristics of ventricular extrasystoles as well as QRS-fragmentation were assessed in all cases. In individuals having sinus rhythm, heart rate turbulence (HRT), T-wave alternans and QT, QTc dispersion on maximum and minimum heart rate were additionally calculated.

Results. The prognostic model included the following ECG-markers: HRT, pathological Q-waves, QTc dispersion on maximum heart rate and QRS-fragmentation in lateral leads (I, AVL, V6). All parameters have demonstrated a direct relationship with the likelihood of severe coronary atherosclerosis. The current model took into account 71% of the factors influencing significant atherosclerosis, AUC=0.94±0.04, the sensitivity and the specificity were 90.0 and 94.4% respectively.

Conclusion. A comprehensive assessment of the ECG data helps to identify the group with an increased risk of severe coronary atherosclerosis among cardiac patients.